Sell, Sell, Sell!

The markets got clobbered today. Period.

I feel pretty well positioned now. A little extra cash than usual and confident in my current positions. Will be looking for capitulation volume in the next few days to load up on my fav's and possibly start a new position.

I must be doing better than back in January because emotionally I am calm, but cautious. I must ensure I don't get too impatient during this sell off, but able enough to step in at the right moment. I read that companies are not allowed to buy back their own stock during the last few days of the qtr, so there is less support than usual for those stocks whose companies are buying back. The bull trap was vicious today coming off of an attempt at a rally in the financials. GS low is in the 140's, so there could be quite a bit more room for the banks to fall.

With oil pushing the 140 level and OPEC making statements of possible 170 levels, the energy stocks should have a nice rally once the broad market gains a foothold. Commodities should also fare better than the overall market as inflation is much higher than the media will admit, although they did quote Buffet on his bearish inflation comments.

The overall trend is still down...caution is advised. Pick your stocks carefully and for heavens sake...get rid of your bonds until inflation is under control!

So, the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 passed the Senate today. Good news for the financials and home builders, who are up today. Everything else is seems to be down. I for one am down HUGE today. That's Ok. A lot of window dressing this week as well. I will let this run it's course and try to find some opportunities that are sure to come.

Ag and Energy is down. Good place to hunt for deals. HR-6 proposes to raise ethanol production to $9B gallons from $5.4B gallons for 2008. We will need a heckuva lot more corn to produce this. Corn needs lots of feritilizer. It is one of the most expensive crops to grow. Further, less acreage is devoted to wheat and other crops. Soybeans is the crop used to rotate with the corn, so I would expect soybeans acreage to increase in proportion to corn.

Well, I may have been a little late to get into RIO under $35. RTP announced an 80% price increase to chinese steel makers. I expect the group to pop in the morning, although BHP says the price increase was not enough.

I need to take a look at all these guys and figure out which is the best. Steel demand in China will remain strong for quite some time. They need something like an 8-9% growth rate just to employ all the new people joining the workforce. This is essential to prevent civil unrest. Meanwhile, they will drive worldwide inflation with their insatiable demand for raw materials and food stuffs.

A virgin board!

So, this is my opening post. I will try to convey my intent and 'grand' vision. Who knows how often I will actually spend on my blog...could be a lot...could be very little!

My basic idea is to keep myself on track and check my emotions at the door regarding my investments. I will also attempt to develop my own ideas and premises in a written media, so as to force myself to have actually thought about my reasons for placing a trade/investment in the first place. I may also, in time, create my own ratings list of various companies that I follow...and perhaps an occasional price target.

I hope that, in time, discussion will abound. I am quite open to others comments about my thoughts...but please, if you think I am an idiot, at least be constructive! My intent is to create a professional-ish atmosphere for discussions. I would love to teach you what I know, but I am still a rookie with a long way to go and a lot more to learn. Feel free to teach me something!