Yeah, I got killed on these last two trades and probably sold at the wrong time. The S&P broke the October 10 lows and I sold on technicals and a lot of pain. I have been feeling the market should take another leg down, but have failed to act when prices were much more advantageous to me. I wouldn't say I panicked, but really was just completely disgusted and exhausted.

So, now I am all cash except for some gold and silver ETF's. I will spend some time regrouping and developing my strategy going forward. I have spent some time looking at the Great Depression and will look for the market to mimic the early 30's. Realizing that it wasn't until over 10 years later that prices made a recovery will make it difficult to find nice gains.

The sharpest gains were in the few months after the absolute bottom (which took two years to reach). The overall market decline was over 80% and currently we are only half way there. Could we really see 2,100 on the DOW? Wow, just thinking about that sounds painful. Hopefully we do not.

Sold Transocean 21 Nov 2008.

Sold Chesapeake 21 Nov 2008.

Selling Potash of Sasketchewan???

I sold POT on Thursday on the threats of a strike, which could affect 30% of production. Too bad this news came at the same time as their quarterly report...which was a terrific report. Given the macro climate, I felt there was more risk to the downside short term. Who knows how long the impasse could last between management and labor?

I expect some weakness on this name, and the chart isn't looking the greatest anymore either...could be rolling over on a double-top. I do not expect this, but I am just being cautious since I am a rookie. I still like the name, but am waiting to see what happens.

Opportunity Knocks!

Chesapeake has dropped to the 200-MA and I am 'all in' so to speak. Capitulation volume and a nice candle. It traded 250% normal volume and closed near it's high for the day. Should see a short term rally. Great time for a trade!

Opportunity or Bull trap?

Some of my favorite names have been swat by the Bear! Quite unnerving to lose 16% of your entire portfolio in one week. It has shaken my confidence in a couple names to survive the headwinds of a bear market and paralyzed me from buying the names I have conviction in. It happened so fast that I wanted to wait and see how long the selling would continue.

Today there was furious buying and I'm afraid that, perhaps, I have missed the bottom of the dip. Now I am in the position of waiting to see if this is a real rally or just a bull trap. One name I was watching, CLR, jumped by 20% today! I had been watching this stock form a high and tight flag and today it broke out to the upside in a seriously fast move. So fast, that the order I had to buy options on...I cancelled. The b/a size was 1/1425! It seemed that there were a lot of sellers wanting a profit and I backed off. This was before noon when the gain was only 12% on the common and 163% in the option! The stock continued to rally all day.

CHK was also interesting this past week. It lost 20% of it's market cap on outstanding news! After touching 74 it sank to 57.72 in four days! I would have bought at 55 but it has already turned. Is it too late? I'm not sure at this point.

I have resorted to saying it is too hard for an amateur right now, so I sat on my hands. There has been too many sad stories of people trying to bottom fish in this market, that I wanted to conserve my cash for more red tape to tick by. I currently have over 20% cash right now and about 10% gold and silver.

I'm leaning to consolidate my positions to only my very favorite (CHK, POT, RIG) and reassess. I would like to add gold/silver and perhaps a new position in SLB.

One final point. FannieMae and FreddieMac are likely to require intervention by the Fed. This, in my opinion, would be highly dilutive to the dollar and therefore bullish for oil and gold. Some of the big institutional banks are still teetering.

Sell, Sell, Sell!

The markets got clobbered today. Period.

I feel pretty well positioned now. A little extra cash than usual and confident in my current positions. Will be looking for capitulation volume in the next few days to load up on my fav's and possibly start a new position.

I must be doing better than back in January because emotionally I am calm, but cautious. I must ensure I don't get too impatient during this sell off, but able enough to step in at the right moment. I read that companies are not allowed to buy back their own stock during the last few days of the qtr, so there is less support than usual for those stocks whose companies are buying back. The bull trap was vicious today coming off of an attempt at a rally in the financials. GS low is in the 140's, so there could be quite a bit more room for the banks to fall.

With oil pushing the 140 level and OPEC making statements of possible 170 levels, the energy stocks should have a nice rally once the broad market gains a foothold. Commodities should also fare better than the overall market as inflation is much higher than the media will admit, although they did quote Buffet on his bearish inflation comments.

The overall trend is still down...caution is advised. Pick your stocks carefully and for heavens sake...get rid of your bonds until inflation is under control!

So, the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 passed the Senate today. Good news for the financials and home builders, who are up today. Everything else is seems to be down. I for one am down HUGE today. That's Ok. A lot of window dressing this week as well. I will let this run it's course and try to find some opportunities that are sure to come.

Ag and Energy is down. Good place to hunt for deals. HR-6 proposes to raise ethanol production to $9B gallons from $5.4B gallons for 2008. We will need a heckuva lot more corn to produce this. Corn needs lots of feritilizer. It is one of the most expensive crops to grow. Further, less acreage is devoted to wheat and other crops. Soybeans is the crop used to rotate with the corn, so I would expect soybeans acreage to increase in proportion to corn.

Well, I may have been a little late to get into RIO under $35. RTP announced an 80% price increase to chinese steel makers. I expect the group to pop in the morning, although BHP says the price increase was not enough.

I need to take a look at all these guys and figure out which is the best. Steel demand in China will remain strong for quite some time. They need something like an 8-9% growth rate just to employ all the new people joining the workforce. This is essential to prevent civil unrest. Meanwhile, they will drive worldwide inflation with their insatiable demand for raw materials and food stuffs.

A virgin board!

So, this is my opening post. I will try to convey my intent and 'grand' vision. Who knows how often I will actually spend on my blog...could be a lot...could be very little!

My basic idea is to keep myself on track and check my emotions at the door regarding my investments. I will also attempt to develop my own ideas and premises in a written media, so as to force myself to have actually thought about my reasons for placing a trade/investment in the first place. I may also, in time, create my own ratings list of various companies that I follow...and perhaps an occasional price target.

I hope that, in time, discussion will abound. I am quite open to others comments about my thoughts...but please, if you think I am an idiot, at least be constructive! My intent is to create a professional-ish atmosphere for discussions. I would love to teach you what I know, but I am still a rookie with a long way to go and a lot more to learn. Feel free to teach me something!