Friday, November 21, 2008

Yeah, I got killed on these last two trades and probably sold at the wrong time. The S&P broke the October 10 lows and I sold on technicals and a lot of pain. I have been feeling the market should take another leg down, but have failed to act when prices were much more advantageous to me. I wouldn't say I panicked, but really was just completely disgusted and exhausted.

So, now I am all cash except for some gold and silver ETF's. I will spend some time regrouping and developing my strategy going forward. I have spent some time looking at the Great Depression and will look for the market to mimic the early 30's. Realizing that it wasn't until over 10 years later that prices made a recovery will make it difficult to find nice gains.

The sharpest gains were in the few months after the absolute bottom (which took two years to reach). The overall market decline was over 80% and currently we are only half way there. Could we really see 2,100 on the DOW? Wow, just thinking about that sounds painful. Hopefully we do not.

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